The moral arena argument for God's existence

The Moral Arena argument is an argument for the existence of God can efficiently combines several features of reality that are commonly taken to be evidence for God. It all starts with this definition:

  • Moral choice arena = def. A community of persons—not necessarily humans—in circumstances where they can interactively engage in what we would call “moral decision-making,” making a difference for others in meaningful ways and ultimately molding their own character.

detective at crime scene

The argument can be presented in different forms, but leverages standard Bayesian reasoning, which is a kind of inductive reasoning that mirrors how we reason in real life. For example, we may think that fingerprint's on the murder weapon matching John's is evidence of John being the murderer, but why? A Bayesian approach would it is because it is more expected/likely that we would find this pattern on the murder weapon given the hypothesis that John is guilty, than given the hypothesis that John is innocent. That is to say, the fingerprints are more surprising on the innocence hypothesis than the guilt hypothesis. As a result, we cannot say that John is guilty, but we can say that the fingerproints count as evidence for John's guilt. With this in mind, let's consider the moral arena argument for God's existence.

A simplified presentation might look like this:

  • Step 1. If God really exists, then the likelihood that God in His goodness would take steps to bring about the greatest causable goods is significantly higher than a 1% chance.

  • Step 2. Whether in fiction or reality, the greatest causable goods require a community of embodied moral agents in a moral arena. (Why would God bring about embodied agents? It is being in bodies that really empowers agents with free will to affect the world and each other. All of science and technology, as well as virtually all entertainment and economy, most relationships, and all the things in between depend on the pushes and pulls of physics. Take it away, and expressive community interactions are suddenly lost. A world of pushes and pulls radically amplifies options and opportunities for free agents to morally flourish, mold their character, engage in cooperative endeavors, and make a difference for others.)

  • Step 3. Therefore, if God exists, there is a greater than 1% chance that God would bring about a community of embodied moral agents in a choice arena.

  • Step 4. By contrast, the likelihood of such an arena existing on the assumption of atheism is far lower than 1%. To see this, multiply the improbabilities of (a spatio-temporal world existing) x (of it being life-permitting) x (of life appearing in it) x (of life developing consciousness) x (and moral sensibilities). This leaves a lot out and yet already it seems far lower than 1%.